February pattern turns cold and possibly stormy

WINTER 2012-1013

While colder and snowier than last winter, this winter has been mild.  temperatures are once again expected to be above normal Thursday possibly reaching 50° and making this the warmest St. Valentine’s Day in 7 years.  The average high is now 40°.

Meteorological Winter is the months of December, January and February.  Since December 1st, 47 days have been above normal – that’s 63%.  This winter is running 3.5° colder than last but that’s not saying much.  Last winter ranked in the top 10 warmest and snowfall was shy of 10″.  We have had 18″ of snow this season two and half times more than last year.   Snow lovers are broken-hearted on this Valentine’s day, only 3.9″ of snow has fallen since January 1st the normal is 12″. (Could a snowy pattern be emerging over the next two weeks?  More on that in a moment)

Seasonal Temps

PATTERN TURNS COLD

The long advertised switch to a colder second half of February gets underway this weekend.  Two cold fronts will pass the state Friday and usher in late season arctic air.  High temperatures are expected to be quite chilly Saturday – possibly not even reaching the upper 20’s.  A break out of forecast temperatures over the next 16 days looks quite cold.  The recent stretch of mild weather has pushed the average temperature for the month now above normal  the surplus looks to be erased as a series of cold jabs are forecast

AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE FROM NORMAL

PAST 5 DAYS: +6°   Next 5 Days: -5°   Days 6-10: -13°   Days 11-16: -17°

STORMY PATTERN EVOLVES

We have identified 3 storm systems over the next two weeks that given the colder pattern will be watched closely for the potential of snow.  Each looks like they can be big snow makers here or nearby but at this distance it is still unclear.  The first arrives Monday/Tuesday next week.  The storms are expected to impact central Indiana February 19th, 22nd and the 26th.  Be sure to check in.  The second half of February could get interesting.

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