It appears we are stuck in winter. That’s what data coming in tells us is likely for the next month. Spring officially begins this morning at 7:02am but it won’t feel like it
anytime soon. In fact the warmest day of the next seven days is only forecast to hit 42 degrees! That is 12 degrees below normal by itself!
Why do we continue to see this cold pattern staying in place? It’s due to a blocking high pattern off the East Coast. This also coupled with the North Atlantic Oscillation steeply diving means no change to the current pattern is going to be likely over the next month. This would seem to indicate a warmer than average spring for the Rocky Mountains and Plains States. Severe weather chances will be pushed down to southern Tennessee and south of that area. Most of the Midwest will see temperatures below average for the next month.
Model data follows along with what other data is telling us. Over the next 15 days the GFS and the Euro keep us cool. This March won’t be one of the coldest ever, but it is one of the coldest we have seen recently. In fact you’d have to go all the way back to March 1996 to see temperatures nearly this cold. That March we saw the average March high of 35.6 degrees. This March as of the 19th our average temperature is at 35.1.