Scattered storms early tonight, severe threat minimal

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STORMS DEVELOPING

Late afternoon scattered storms are developing in Indiana, most organized in the northern quarter of the state.  Storms have developing in a moderately unstable air mass and in advance of a slow-moving cold front.  Through 6 PM the strongest storms are sliding from South Bend to Ft. Wayne. With radar scans of these storms to just over 40,000 feet.  Early in the afternoon t-storms wind gusts were reported at 60 mph in Bremen in Marshall county.

Scattered storms emerged on central Indiana radar around 5 PM near Martinsville.  The slow-moving storm produced heavy downpours with 1 hour radar estimates of up to a half-inch.  Additional storms have formed over Hendricks and Putnam counties.

SEVERE THREAT

The chance of severe storms here looks very small as the cold front settles south.  The energized atmosphere, the approaching cold front are good starter ingredients for severe storms to form but the set up requires a little upper air support to really get the ball rolling.  The best upper air support is pulling away from the state and moving into southeast Canada.  Therefore the best chance of severe storms will target northeast Indiana.  The Storm Prediction Center has updated the risk area for north and northeast Indiana.

Showers and storms are possible in scattered fashion through midnight then only a few showers or even a downpour is possible through 2 AM.

Severe Outlook

Severe Outlook

Meteogram CAPE

Energy to support storms drops after 12 AM

FRONT SLOWS

The sluggish front will lag and stall in the southern third of the state through Friday evening.  The front will act as a focus mechanism for additional showers and thunderstorms to develop.  Currently most of the rain chance will target the southern third of the state.

COOL SPELL

Wednesday was the first “above” normal day here in the city in over 2 weeks.  The afternoon high equaled the warmest here in this 2 week stretch but the added humidity kept the overnight low warm and produced a peak heat index of 89° around 3 a 4 PM.  The pattern is not breaking.  The next 2.5 weeks will continue to average below normal.  Here is a break out of afternoon high temperature departures from normal

DAYS 1-5: -5°

DAYS 6-10: -9.6°

DAYS: 11-16: -11.2°

8-14 Day Weds 8-7-2013

Cool Pattern
Rolls Along