Small rain chance as warm up continues

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CLOUDS RETURN OVERNIGHT

A dip in the jet stream signals energy in the form of low pressure – that is what is showing up on the weather charts tonight.  The 100% sunny day turned partly cloudy at night fall and more clouds are inching into the state.  This rather minor system will try to generate a few spotty showers after midnight.  Limited in moisture and in strength the rain chance is slight.  Additional clouds tonight will make for a milder overnight.  Early morning temperature Tuesday fell to a chilly 41° in Muncie

WARMING UP

A big temp swing Tuesday after a chilly start.  With area temperature dipping into the 40s the September sun and dry air worked to rebound temperatures some 25 to 33 degrees by afternoon.  In the city we jumped 27 degrees from 50° to a high of 77°.  Not uncommon when dry air is in place.  The low dew point this time of year will produce a quick drop after sunset and a fast rise under the early Fall sunshine,   Other area temp climbs:

Terre Haute 33° (78° / 45°)

Muncie 32° (73°/ 41°)

Columbus 30° (75° / 45°)

80s RETURN

The warm up is expected to peak Saturday with a jump into 80s starting Friday and lasting into Saturday.  A front will approach Saturday night offering rain chances again Sunday.  Current thinking is that a few thermometers could reach summer level warmth under sunny skies Saturday before the rain arrives for the second half of the weekend.

ECMRF Saturday

Upper air forecast
Saturday morning

 

A WET TURN IN THE WORKS?

Rain amounts off several machines are only cranking out .35″ over the next 7 days.  The best rainfall chance over the next 7 days coming Sunday there are some signals off long-range forecast data that wet weather may unfold as wee get into the first week of October.  Still several days out the rainfall numbers off the U.S. model generates 3″ plus rainfall here starting October 5th.  Stay tuned this will be monitored very closely.

Rainfall_Comparison

7 and 16 day rainfall forecast