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Sunny stretch continues, rain arrives Sunday

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100% SUNNY

After early morning fog dropped visibility to feet away from the city early Thursday but late September sunshine bathed central Indiana all afternoon.  There were no clouds Thursday and temperatures responded from early morning lows in the middle 40s to high temperatures in the upper 70s.  The relative humidity dropped to under 35% Thursday and that dry air will heat quickly.  Temperature at Muncie, Terre Haute, Bloomington, Columbus all rose 30 degrees from their morning low.  The same dry air will cool quickly after sunset.  Low temperature will dip away from the city back into the 40s.  Patchy Fog is possible again early Friday mainly well out from the city.

Friday looks to be a repeat performance in the weather department with perhaps a few added degrees in the afternoon.  Friday is expected at 100% sunny and reach the 80° mark in most locations.

SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES

Nearing the end of the first month of Meteorological Fall it has been a warm September with 20 of the 26 days at 80° or higher.  3 days have reached 90° which equals the number of 60° days.  The warming trend will continue into the first half of the weekend with forecast high temperatures reaching 80s Friday and Saturday.

WEEKEND RAIN

Showers and a cold front are still on track for Sunday.  Rainfall amounts off 4 computers are averaging .46″ staring in the predawn hours of Sunday.  Timing will be firmed up tonight and Friday.  Showers are expected into the early afternoon Sunday.

EARLY SEASON SNOW OUT WEST

The cold front that pushes into Indiana Sunday will be much less weaker that it is now.  There is some real cold air coming south and parts of the western Rockies will whiten up as an early season snow storm unfolds.  Winter storms watches and warnings have been hoisted in northeast Utah and northwest Colorado.  A foot of snow could fall in the Big Horn mountains of Wyoming.

REAL FALL COOL ON THE WAY

Continuing the forecast of a cool down we have circled the week of October the 5th for perhaps the coolest air of the season and possibly a wet turn as well.  Chilly autumn air is looking like it will make a strong push into the upper Midwest and eventually reaching Indiana starting the 5th.  This may be dramatic change from very warm air to open the month.  October is forecast to open with a 80° temperature, warmest open to October in 6 years then the cool settles in.  In a follow-up from yesterday’s post note the comparison of the upper air forecast off the 2 Long Ranger forecast models.  A virtual flip – flop in solutions when compared to Wednesday.  The European is now stronger and colder while the U.S. GFS has backed off.  Details will be ironed out over the next several days but as a forecaster you see this quite frequently and it is the “where there is smoke there is fire” approach this far out.  Will be interesting to see how it unfold but circle the calendar that should be an interesting week.

ECMRF Oct 5th_6th

ECMWF Forecast Oct 5th

GFS Oct 5th_6th

U.S. GFS
October 5th Forecast