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The week starts warmer and rain chances are back

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Central Indiana saw a beautiful day to end the weekend.  Temperatures were still technically below normal for this time of year but the lighter winds and ample sunshine made it much more comfortable outside.  FCST_Low_TempsSkies remain clear in the overnight hours and this is going to set us up for a decent temperature drop once again, but not as chilly as the 30°F we saw to start Sunday morning.  We should drop into the mid 30s across the state tonight under clear skies and light winds. In weather geek-speak, this is radiational cooling at it’s finest!

TOMORROW_PLANNERMonday starts with plenty of sunshine but a disturbance to our south will help move in some clouds later in the afternoon.   But this sunshine will be enough to push temperatures to normal levels for the first time in almost a week. And with winds coming in from the northeast at 3 to 7 mph today, it will be a comfortable day and less windy day too.

A large area of low pressure will be impacting the Midwest and Ohio Valley as the week progresses.  The first sign of this system will be the lifting warm front on Tuesday late afternoon and evening.  This front will only result in isolated showers toward the end of the day and minimal amounts of rainfall.  Wednesday morning should be dry as we see a lull between rainfall chances.  But this does get us into a more humid and moisture rich area.  We’ll see scattered showers on Wednesday afternoon ahead of the main cold front and especially Wednesday night.  These too will be on the side with a few heavier downpours throughout the day.  But the cold front coming in on Thursday is the big talker.  This round of showers and thunderstorms could bring around 1″ of rain to Central Indiana, with locally higher amounts possible as well.

The exact timing of when we’ll see the best chance for storms is in flux.  Yesterday, all the models were pointing toward a later day round of storms from this system.  But today, there is more of a split.  The GFS is going with the better chance for rain during Thursday morning and early afternoon. The ECMWF (Euro) stayed with the mid afternoon through late evening rainfall and storm timing.  We know there has been some early “buzz” on the chance for severe weather with this system.  Because of model uncertainty, it’s just too early to say we’ll for sure get strong or severe storms on Thursday.  It’s not out of the question, but as of right now, even the SPC has left Central Indiana out of the long range severe weather discussion.  But I will say this, it is going to be a very windy day a this system comes through, regardless of timing.  Winds will be coming in from the south at 15 to 25 mph, gusting even higher than that with our stronger storms.  So what do you need to do?  Check back with us on Monday and Tuesday to see what changes have taken place in the models and as this event is coming more into focus.  For sure, we’ll have to complete look at this storm by Tuesday along with our chance for severe weather and what those severe weather elements would be.