Winter Storm Warning, heavy snow develops tonight

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NEW WINTER STORM ARRIVES TONIGHT

Our sunny Friday turned cloudy quickly and the work week will end with warmer temperatures but plenty of new snow.  A northbound weather system riding a 100 mph jet stream into central Indiana will bring accumulating snow again to most of the state late Friday and early Saturday.  Tapping moist air initially from the Pacific and then from the Gulf of Mexico, this fast hitting system will generate up to a half-foot of snow for much of central Indiana.  The system will come in pieces or waves becoming more steady in the late night or pre-dawn hours Saturday.

SNOW/SLEET ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT

The first batch of wintry weather is forecast to arrive around 7 PM into the city (earlier southwest) with a quick hitting burst of snow and sleet.  A quick accumulation of 1” is possible, then pushing north the snow will ease.  There will be a lull in the action for a few hours then new moisture will surge north later tonight.

FOX_Futurecast

Forecast radar Friday night at 8 PM

Accumulation by daybreak Saturday will range from 2” to 4” with moderate to heavy snow falling before sunrise.

Winter Advisories ADI

Winter Storm Warning
Issued through 6 PM Saturday

Rainfall_Comparison

Snowfall Model comparison

STORM MOVES OUT

Some heavy snow early Saturday will scatter and diminish from west to east as the jet stream carries the system east.  Total accumulation from the storm will be impacted by the speed of the system.  The average off 7 various computers has been very consistent with around 4.5” of snow down in the city with a range from 3.2” to 6.3”.  Locally higher amounts of 6” are possible.  An upper level low pressure is forecast to spin over central Indiana early Saturday and its track will influence where the heavier snow band will fall.  The thinking is along and just north of the I 70 corridor that includes the city of Indianapolis.  The snow will cut off and end by Saturday evening with only light snow and drizzle or freezing drizzle falling by sunset.

Snowfall Forecast CITIES

Forecast Snowfall by Saturday night

Snow Prob map

Heavy snowfall probability tops 80% area wide for 4″ snow

COLDER SUNDAY

Brisk winds will develop in the wake of the storm Sunday.  Temperatures broke the freezing mark for the first time Friday since last Thursday and will top the freezing mark again Saturday, but it will turn colder Sunday with afternoon temperatures only in the low 20s and wind chill temps in the lower teens.

WARMING NEXT WEEK

A developing storm system is still in the works as we near Christmas.  Initially a change in the upper air pattern could allow milder air to reach the state by later in the week.  A shot of snow Tuesday is possible then south winds will lock in Thursday and Friday bumping temps into the 40s potentially to end the work week.

PRE CHRISTMAS STORM STILL ON TRACK

The push of milder air will be brief as the long-range charts still indicated a massive surge of cold and a potent storm riding up an arctic boundary late in the weekend or early in the week days before Christmas.  Long Range charts for the US model GFS and the European both show the most important features (precip/temps and surface fronts) but location is the key and still too far out to be determined.  Keep checking back!  The thinking is where there is smoke there is fire.  Something is brewing.

ECMWF Next Sunday

Weather map forecast Sunday before Christmas