Big rainfall headed here this weekend, flooding concerns on the rise

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WARMING UP

Milder air is arriving and temperatures have already made a jump Wednesday afternoon.  The rise will continue for the next few days, a welcome change from the 13 day stretch of cold.  Since December 6th the average temperature of 21.8° is the 11th coldest ever for the dates December 6th through the 17th.  The low temperature early Thursday morning will be as much as 15 degrees warmer than Wednesday morning and the mildest start to a day here in over 2 weeks.

FCST_Low_Temps
THursday Morning
low Temps

RAIN COMING

Sunny skies here Wednesday but something that will be hard to come by until next Tuesday.  The milder flow brings warmer but wetter weather with it.  Clouds arrive Thursday but we will remain dry with showers coming late Thursday night into Friday morning.  Rainfall is likely over a three-day spell coming in two waves.  The first wave of showers Friday will bring generally lighter rainfall all amounts of about a third of an inch.

fox futurecast
Weather map Friday morning

The second surge of rain arrives Saturday afternoon and night.  Currently, forecasts indicate rain will become heavy at times and steady during the overnight hours into early Sunday morning.  The combination of heavy snowpack and heavy rain will bring serious flooding to much of the state.  Flood advisories will be issued perhaps as early as Thursday morning for the weekend.

The rainfall numbers here are very impressive and support widespread flooding.  Off two computer the average rainfall in central Indiana is at 3.45”!  Take the time to prepare now if you are in a flood prone area.  The confidence is high that flooding will occur.

Rainfall_Comparison

Computer Rainfall comparison

WEEKEND STORM

The low pressure track off the overnight computers has shifted a little further north but has not altered the forecast for us significantly.  We are still on the front side (warm) of the storm with a conveyor belt of moisture expected to be pumped into the state.  Heavy snow will fall on the cold northwest side of the storm from northern Missouri into far northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  Yesterday’s snow forecast placed a foot of snow over Chicago and the new runs have nudged the heavy snow axis north.  Better news for travelers but by no means a set in stone forecast.  Changes in the track are likely through Friday so be sure to check back!

Euro WX Map Sun 12-22

Euro forecast weather map Sunday 12-22-2013

ANY CHANCE OF SNOW BEFORE CHRISTMAS? YES

The forecast of heavy rain is likely to wash away most of the snow and dash the hopes of a white Christmas. We are still several days away and there are hints of some snow here.  Snow showers are currently forecast to develop in the wake of the weekend storm late Sunday or Monday and much colder air moves in.  There is also a fast-moving system that could drop in Wednesday Christmas day with snow showers.  Still a chance of snow before the holiday – we will keep you up to date.