More weather headaches coming, snow, freezing rain and heavy rain

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COLD EASING

The bitter blast of arctic air is in full retreat Wednesday night.  The severed ties to the polar jet stream means temperatures are rebounding quickly, with a rise forecast each afternoon into the weekend.  Brisk wind chill temperatures are expected again overnight  – running into the single digits through early Thursday morning.    The low tonight will dip again into the teens before rebounding to 30° Thursday afternoon.

The first week of January 2014 produced an average temperature of 13.1°,  good for the 8th coldest ever on record.

Wind Chill forecast

Thursday AM RPM model wind chill forecast

SOME SNOW RETURNS

Light snow and snow showers persist over northern – central Indiana at 4:30 PM.  Light snow was falling late Wednesday from Lafayette to Kokomo and Muncie but is not expected to accumulate very much.  A stationary front crosses the state tonight and will focus the snow showers along it.  Scattered snow showers could dip south into the city overnight but will remain light.

Snow showers develop again Thursday and could be enough to stick.  While amounts will likely be light a coating to a half-inch is possible by Thursday night.  A rise in temperatures will accompany the snow Thursday to near the freezing mark in the afternoon.

JANUARY 2014 SNOW

If you thought we had a lot of snow the first week of January, you were right!  But even more impressive, it’s the 2nd snowiest 5 days ever on record and most in 119 years!  17.5” of snow fell the first 5 days of the month – good for the snowiest start ever in a January.  Only the 5 day stretch back on December 25th through the 30th of 1895 produced more snow, 19.5”

Dog Days
Snowiest open to a January ever and 5 days in 119 years

FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN ON THE WAY

Snow showers late Thursday night with change to light freezing rain by Friday morning.  While icing looks to be light there could be a return to slick conditions again for the Friday morning commute.  The rise in temperatures Friday will be slow but crack the freezing mark by late morning.

Rain will increase as a system up wells more mild air and moisture.  This system arrives late Friday with a potential of moderate to heavy rainfall.  Currently there is a potential of a half inch to one inch of rainfall down by Saturday evening area wide.  Not a good combination with melting snow.  Local flooding concerns are on the rise and will be monitored carefully.  A four model rainfall average for the city is beefy coming in at .83”.  the range is .63” to 1.28” – the US GFS model is the highest.  Currently I’m favoring the lesser amounts off the 3 other models at this time, there are indications that this system could be coming through more quickly and may cut down on the rainfall amounts.  Be sure to check back for updates Thursday and Friday.

BITTER COLD REGROUPS?

Long range forecast upper air pattern looks rather wavy over the next 10 days as the polar jet stream retreats.  The will be quick jabs of cold coming over the next 7 days as the west to east flow buckles from time to time.  However the core of the cold air in retreat will fill Canada again later next week and there are hints the a full blown arctic plunge may be in the works again by later next week.  I will have more by Friday.

Jet Stream

Day 10 Euro model Jet Stream Forecast