Thaw arrives, severe storm threat coming and cold will return

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Tuesday was the warmest day of the month with the official high of 49° in the city –  streak of days below normal snapped at 17 with warmest air  here since Jan 13th (50°).  Some area thermometers were above 50 degrees Tuesday – up 20° from same time Monday.

high today

High Tuesday warmest of the month


The sun angle climbs – February sun is 2 times stronger than same time in December.  Daylight increases by 1 hour 15 minutes this month.


The thaw continues through Thursday as a powerhouse storm develops – it brings the warmest air in 2 months with it but also a severe t-storm threat. The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) outlook continues to highlight most of IN for severer storm potential. Main threat here damaging winds – tornado threat at this distance favors portion of southwest  Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi.

Euro Thu AM 2-20

Euro Weather map Thursday morning

SPC Day 3 outlook

Severe weather Outlook Thursday

The set-up for severe storms on Thursday include a 100 mph jet stream, the location of the nose of the jet max (strongest winds within the flow) and a  rapid pressure drop.  The combination of all three sets the table for a severe line of damaging wind t-storms.  The central pressure of the storm will drop so rapidly that air strong non-thunderstorm winds will develop – air rushing in to fill the void of  rising air that builds t-storms.  The rapid drop in central pressure within the storm is known as “bombogenesis” the beginning of a low pressure or storm but with extreme intensification – classified as a 24 millibar drop in 24 hours


Severe storm set-up


Enjoy the break – to date it’s the coldest February on record and 6th coldest winter. The dominate cold winter pattern is not breaking and cold returns next week and to open March. Beyond the medium range forecast (8-14 days) the month of March is setting up to be cold.

8-14 Outlook

8-14 day outlook