Big storm Thursday brings 2014’s warmest and line of severe storms

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EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS

Temps are expected to rise late tonight as powerful storm develops out west. A surge of warm, moist air ahead of the storm and in advance of a warm front, brings rain and possible t-storms before sunrise Thursday.

Hrrr Thursday 12z

Forecast radar 7 AM Thursday

STORM DEEPENS

Winds crank up as the storm central pressure drops rapidly, warming here to upper 50s and even a few local 60° temps Thursday afternoon (Warmest here of 2014). A late afternoon/evening squall line to sweep state from 6pm thru 11pm. Risk of severe storms continues for Thursday, with NWS Storm prediction SREF computer model indicating potential for tornadoes into southern Indiana south to Louisiana.  Damaging wind main threat for central Indiana but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.

Strom_Track

Storm set-up Thursday afternoon

SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f033

SREF Tornado potential

Dog Days

Planning Thursday

RAINFALL AND FLOODING

Rainfall off 7 computers are averaging .64” for the city – with a range of .46” to .81” – not good considering the amount of snow on the ground.  Local rivers, creeks and stream will rise quickly Thursday night into Friday morning and are likely to remain at flood stage for several days into early next week.  Flood warning has been for much of the state.

COLD BLAST

Winds will still be howling early Friday as cold air rushes in behind the storm.  The thaw ends!  The combined temperature and wind will produce a feels-like in the upper teens.  It will feel like it is 45 to 50 degrees colder Friday morning.  Snow showers will accompany the cold as well Friday, lingering in the afternoon and evening. The colder pattern returns and tightens its grip to end the month of February.  Colder air looks to dominate again into the month of March.  The 30 day outlook will be issued Thursday – our early take is that much of Indiana will likely be colder than normal for the month.

8-14 day temps

8-14 day outlook temperatures