WARMEST OF THE YEAR
It feels like Spring – warmest day of 2014 and warmest here in over 8 weeks. Down state middle 60s at Bedford and Seymour (April-level warmth) only upper 40s far north under heavy snow pack at 4:00 PM. Patch dense fog has formed north Thursday afternoon but visibility will improve as the winds increase tonight.
SEVERE LINE OF STORMS
Severe line of storms coming tonight. Forming in Missouri they have raced into central Illinois at 4:30 PM, damaging winds primary threat along with a few isolated tornadoes. NWS SREF computer model shows greatest potential for tornadoes south but a few cannot be ruled out over parts of south-central Indiana.
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued at 5 PM for a portion of Indiana through 10 PM
We bracket the hours of 6 PM to 11 PM for a fast-moving, severe line of storms crossing through the state, in city 7-9 PM. Few scattered gusty storms could form before main squall line by 6 PM Image below a forecast radar off hi-res model at 8 PM. Note the squall line west and scattered storms east of line. Those will need close monitoring.
Some encouraging news – 7 computer model rainfall numbers have dropped. Avgerage rainfall for city now .36″. Snow melt and rain will keep rivers and streams in flood for days. Standing/high water in streets and low lying areas expected through Friday.
Beyond the severe threat later tonight, a powerful 140 mph jet stream will roar overhead bringing gusty winds. A wind advisory in effect through Friday 6 PM Non-t-storm winds gusts of 50 mph possible.
Brace for the chill early Friday – it will feel – kike it is 40 to 50 degrees colder Friday morning as the chill falls into the teens. Scattered snow showers could be on the radar at times Friday.
COLD PATTERN IS BACK
The latest 30 day outlook is out – and as we have advertised for 2 weeks – the return to the cold pattern coming this week is likely to extend well into the month of March. Temperatures are likely to be below normal over much of the northeast U.S.