Record breaker? Southern winter storm this weekend has potential to deliver snow here

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WINDS EASE

The wind advisory has been canceled in central Indiana Friday evening and winds will shift and subside later tonight.  Peak wind gust of 52 mph was reported from the National Weather Service in Indianapolis shortly after 3 PM.  Other are gusts included:

51 Bloomington

47 Muncie

45 Eagle Creek

43 Terre Haute

39 Zionsville

BIG WARM UP

We ended the work week a like we started with the another 60° day.  The official high of 61° was10 degrees above normal.  The turnaround from Thursday to Friday was as stunning as the drop from Tuesday to Wednesday with many area thermometers up 25° to 30° from the same time yesterday.

24_hr_temp_change

24 Hour Temps Change 3 PM Friday

2 COLD FRONTS 24 HOURS

A wind shift is underway early this evening between 8 and 10 PM in the city.  This is the first of 2 cold fronts that will pass by Saturday night. Cooling behind the first front takes area temperatures back to more seasonal  March levels Saturday  – the lower 50s.  The second cold front will arrive near sunset Saturday with winds backing northwest to northeast.  Much colder air will once again arrive Sunday as a strong, southern storm system takes shape.  Spotty showers detected off Guardian Radar around 8:30 PM Friday give rough location of the 1st cold front.

Level 2

2 SEASONS – 1 WEEKEND

This will be the 3rd consecutive weekend that open like Spring and ends like winter.  Colder air pulled into a southern tracking storm system will arrive Sunday.  The storm will intensify and near Sunday afternoon with winds strengthening to 30 to 35 mph by midday.

EURO WX MAP Sunday  8 AM

Euro model forecast weather map 8 AM Sunday

RECORD BREAKING SNOW?

Once again a tricky winter storm system offers the potential of accumulating snow in the city Sunday.  The past 2 snow makers have failed to yield enough snow to tie or break the snow season record that stands at 58.2” set in 1981-1982.  We trail in 3rd place by 3.1”, 2.8” behind 2nd place 1977-1978 with 55.1” total.

This southern storm system we’ve followed all week per some overnight computer runs are taking more northerly track. NOT the consensus – but a measurable snow over central and southern Indiana still looks possible. Range of snow in city at this point from nothing to 4″ on average of 6 models, but jury still out.  I late Friday night: The “outliers” (once producing the highest snow amounts) are trending further south and closer to the less snowy computer forecasts.  We will monitor.

I’m posting the European forecast weather map Sunday morning and its snowfall potential map – this model keeps most of the snow south.

EURO Snowfall potential

Euro Model forecast snow

Also the RPM model forecast snow amounts – this model and the U.S. NAM model are more aggressive with higher end of the snow amounts and the location of the heaviest snow band.

Accumulated Snowfall RPM

RPM Model accumulated snowfall

Finally, the WPC Super ensemble model paints a 40% probability of a 4” snow in this final graphic.  Nothing carved in snow and track adjustments are coming.   Will need a few more runs to firm up exact details off later runs tonight and Saturday. Stay tuned!

Prob os Snow 3-14-2014

NWS Super Ensemble Probability of 4″ snow through 72 hours