One more run at the snow record before warmest Sunday of the year

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SEASONAL SNOWFALL

We have not had a 1″ plus snowfall here in nearly 4 weeks, holding at 55.4″ for the season, 3rd all-time. We trail #1 1981-82 (58.3″) and #2 1977-78 (57.9″).

Dog Days

2013-2014 snowfall ranks 3rd all-time

 

SATURDAY RAIN TO SNOW – A RUN AT THE RECORD

Snow on the way for Saturday starting in city as rain initially with switch to wet snow by 9 AM. Rain will arrive in city around 3 AM and transition to/mix of heavy wet snow with accumulation possible.

Dog Days

Rain to Snow early Saturday then ending

 

The first image is the forecast radar off the RAP model. The second image from the RPM model showing switch to wet snow around 9-10 AM. A suite of computer estimated snowfall forecasts and techniques places 1″ to 2″ of wet snow in the city before ending after noon.

RAP Sat AM

NWS RAP model – forecast radar Saturday morning 3 AM

 

FOX_Futurecast

RPM Forecast radar Saturday morning 10 AM

Prob of Snow 48 hours

NWS Super ensemble probability of 2″ snowfall

Snowfall Forecast

Snowfall potential Saturday

Further east – consensus on higher amounts of 2″ to 4″ possible for eastern IN into Ohio. I’m posting the NWS super ensemble probability of 2″ snow (40%), and our FOX59 projected snowfall. Good News: sun is back and we jump into the 50s Sunday. Any snow that accumulates will be short-lived.

 

SUNNY SUNDAY – WARMER TOO

The nice thing about late March snow – it does not last long and Sunday spring will make a rally.  Sunny skies and milder temperatures will return – making this the warmest Sunday of 2014.  A new storms system will push a warm front through the state late day.  Windy – and even warmer middle 60s push into the state to start the work week.

Day 2 Temps

Sunday will turn warmer – warmest Sunday of 2014

 

WET PATTERN – PLENTY OF APRIL SHOWERS

There are several storm systems lining up over the next 2.5 weeks per the overnight computer runs.  Two longer range models have churned out over 1.50” of rain over the next 7 days and the U.S. Model GFS out to 16 days cranks out a whopping 4.02”.

While “milder” air will appear briefly as each storm system approaches – warmer air is still not ready to take hold for any extended stretch through the first two weeks of April.  The medium ranger outlook for temperatures out the next 8-14 days still shows colder than normal air for much of the eastern U.S.

8-14 Day temp Outlook

8-14 Day Temperature Forecast