Stormy stretch with heavy rain and severe thunderstorms coming

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WARM APRIL OPEN

The high of 64° Tuesday completed the first back to back 60 degree days here since mid-November and this April opened 17 degrees warmer than last year.  There was a large temperature spread from north to south.  Late afternoon temperatures ranged from middle 50s north to 70° down state.

JEN1

 

 

STORMY STRETCH

Wet weather headed to central Indiana and the rainfall amounts could be very high. Rain showers develop later Tuesday night and continue through Friday morning culminating with a line of potentially severe storms late Thursday night or early Friday morning.

Winter Stats

 

The same front that passed early Tuesday will stall then return north as a warm front Wednesday evening.  Along and ahead of the front showers will become more numerous increasing in coverage and intensity into Thursday morning.

 

Rainfall amounts look quite healthy with the latest run of the RPM model targeting central Indiana with 2 to 4 inch plus rainfall.  An average off 4 various computer models the average rainfall output for the city is 2.46” with a spread of 1.21” to 3.04”  The latest RPM numbers below just into the weather center is now the boldest of all runs.  There is a potential we receive a month’s full of April rain  (3.81”) over the next 3 days.

Rainfall Specific cities

RPM Rainfall potential

 

SEVERE THREAT

A 90 mph jet stream is expected to kick in later Thursday and possibly develop a strong/severe line of storms.  The threat for severe weather here grows for later Thursday night and  early Friday as the storm matures and begins to tilt northwest or rotate/spin left nearing its mature stage.  A “negative tilt” storm identified by meteorologist can often bring an outbreak of damaging winds and tornadoes.  Stay tuned and alert for the potential late Thursday night.  We are closely monitoring the latest computer runs.  The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has out looked most of Indiana for the slight risk of severe storms and may elevate a portion of the state to a moderate risk Wednesday.

Severe Outlook

Slight Risk Thursday evening into Friday morning

SREF 500 mb

Strong Jet stream forecast late night Thursday could bring severe line of storms