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Stormy Thursday – several waves of gusty and severe storms possible

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WAVES OF STORMS COMING – SEVERE STORMS LIKELY

A severe weather outbreak is likely Thursday evening into Friday morning as 80+ mph jet stream roars into the state. Late Thursday night and early very early Friday morning is the target time for potential of severe storms.

However there is a possibility of a few strong to severe storms earlier in the day as a warm front moves up from southern Indiana. Heavy rainfall is likely to fall during the morning commute. Early into the afternoon a few storms may for and riding along the warm front could turn severe, there is a potential for hail with these storms should they develop.

The set-up more favorable for damaging winds and tornadoes late evening or overnight as the storm pivots northwest.  When the parent low makes this switch, more spin in the atmosphere could bring a heightened tornado threat.  The NWS SREF model has picked up on such a scenario with tornado ingredients favorable from southern Indiana southwest.  Stay tuned!

 

day2otlk_1730

SPC Day 2 severe weather outlook

500 mb jet max

80 mph jet streak enters the state driving severe weather potential

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SREF severe weather probability

 

SREF prob_sigtor

Tornado potential late Thursday

Winter Stats

Gusty storms could start out the day with several waves of storms through Friday morning

 

BIG TEMPERATURE SPREAD

The approaching warm front from the south and its slow migration will be the focus for repeated downpours and thunderstorms.  The large temperature contrast will develop Thursday afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 50s north to the upper 60s south.

 

NO 70° DAY YET

Officially Indianapolis has yet to reach the 70 degree mark – and as of Wednesday the span between the last 70 and the first one has reached 170 days.  This ties for 12th longest stretch between 70 degree days ever on record.

 

HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS

Flood watch hoisted through Friday morning. We could receive and entire month of April rainfall next 3 days (3.8″). Average off 6 rain generating computer models has 2.45″ down for the city. Range from 1.87″ to 2.89″ Locally higher totals possible with repeat t-storm offenders.

Micro Rainfall specific cities

ADONIS Rainfall potential

 

AREAL FLOOD

Areal Flood Watch/warnings