Severe weather possible this afternoon, timeline and threat details

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Central Indiana started the day with widespread showers and isolated storms. Rainfall was heaviest in the southern half of the state where more than an inch of rain has already fallen. Indianapolis picked up .5″ of rain already. This is a moisture rich system so more chances for soaking rains continue with storms that develop this afternoon and continue into the evening hours. But this next round of activity has the potential to turn severe for us.

Severe OutlookSEVERE RISK

The Storm Prediction Center includes our viewing area in a “slight risk” of severe weather. This is the lowest category of severe weather potential but it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on the weather throughout the day. Slight risk days have been known to produce damaging storms, large hail and tornadoes. We are specifically looking at the chance for large hail, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes today. You can also expect heavy downpours and frequent lightning with anything that forms throughout the afternoon and evening hours. There are plenty of outdoor events today, so stay weather aware and make sure you are checking the radar and watching us here on FOX59.

The SPC includes us in a 15% chance of damaging winds and large hail today with storms that turn severe. But the more likely hail threat is focused just to our west today in central Illinois. That area has a 30% chance of large hail which is significant. As for the tornado risk, we are looking at a 2% chance of a tornado forming which is often the case in a “slight risk” severe weather zone.

TIMELINE:

We will see a break in shower activity by 11 a.m. across the state.  The morning activity is moving to the northeast and this will leave us dry around lunch time and through the early afternoon hours. In this time, we could see some breaks in the clouds. If you end up seeing sunshine, know that this is a sign of energy building and it could spell stronger storms for your area.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms could start developing around 3-4 p.m. today. Some isolated cells prior to that window are possible but after 3 p.m. is when more energy is at play.  These storms will be driven by the lifting warm front so these storms should move from south to north through our viewing area. We will see the chance for severe weather with these initial cells.  Chief Meteorologist Brian Wilkes and I will be tracking these LIVE on FOX59 from 4-7 p.m. The chance for scattered storms will persist through the mid-afternoon hours.

Then a more defined line of storms will start pushing into the state from Illinois after sunset.  This could bring more severe storms as it passes from west to east across the state. Individual cells should move from southwest to northeast. Depending on the evolution of this line, we could see large hail, isolated tornado spin ups or even some damaging winds.  This is an evolving system so it’s important to stay informed throughout the day.  The amount of energy that builds locally and even storms to the south will play a part in how strong our storms end up being later today.SEVERE RISK

OVERNIGHT:

We should see that line of stronger storms moving out of the state by 1-2 a.m. and then we’ll get into a lull of precipitation with this system. Our severe threat should end by midnight. You can’t rule out some isolated non-severe activity overnight and into Tuesday morning but the chance is rather low.

Severe OutlookTUESDAY:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop again on Tuesday afternoon and these pose the risk of turning severe. But this time it’s not area wide but instead from just east of Indianapolis.  This would include Anderson, Muncie, New Castle, Shelbyville, Greensburg, Columbus, Seymour, Rushville, Greenfield and Marion, not to mention several other towns east of Indianapolis.

These storms will also bring in the chance for large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes and the main time frame for this to start is in the early afternoon hours and continuing into the evening.