Enjoy the dry weather this weekend because starting on Monday rain chances will return to the area in what looks like a soggy week ahead. There is still significant uncertainty about what is going to occur but you’d be smart to dust off the umbrella.
Long range model data agrees that we will see a rainy week with the two model average (GFS, EURO) coming in at 2.31” of rain falling over the course of the next 7 days. They disagree on when and how much rain we should expect on any given day right now. The GFS keeps next Friday and Saturday dry right now. The GFS is also forecasting most of this week’s rain will fall on Wednesday (Forecasting about 1.4” of rain). The Euro starts us off with scattered storms through Tuesday with rain chances ramping up as we get closer to the weekend. The Euro spreads the rani around a little better as well with Friday edging out Wednesday as the wettest day of the week. While I think the Euro model information will be a little closer with the truth I will keep a blended forecast for the week with peak rain days of Wednesday and Friday.
I just wanted to make a quick mention that severe weather will be possible during the week, with the Storm Prediction Center already highlighting day 5 (Wednesday) for the potential for severe weather. I will caution that while it is nice to see an early warning for strong storms, there is high uncertainty still how things will play out overall. The area of concern will be a surface low forecast to slide down a steering boundary (warm front) right over the state. Large hail with the potential for strong straight line winds will be the main concern on Wednesday. We will keep you up to date and let you know if there are any changes.
While next work week will be rainy, this weekend will not be. A fairly powerful 1012mb high continues to be anchored along the northeast coast keeping us dry and the atmosphere stable. Over the weekend this area of high pressure will continue to slide away from us and into the Atlantic Ocean, leaving a weak boundary and southerly winds in its wake. Dew points will be fairly low this weekend meaning relatively comfortable weather in spite of highs in the mid to potentially upper 80s.