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Dangerous storms set to move through state this evening, overnight

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Much of state is under a moderate risk for severe weather

It’s looking like a busy weather weekend with the potential for strong storms arriving later tonight into the overnight hours.  Parts of the state are now under a moderate risk for severe weather.  The rest of the state is under a slight risk.  Rain won’t be completely limited to this evening and tonight as it looks like to me that we could see a cluster of storms arriving this morning, the severe round hitting tonight with two more waves impacting the state through Monday.  Rain could still pose a problem for the 21st running of the Brickyard 400.

Today:

A brief round of storms possible this morning

A brief round of storms possible this morning

Most of the day will be dry with high temperatures hitting the mid-80s to near 90!  There’s a lot of uncertainty with regards to just how warm we get and part of that is the complexities with everything going on in the atmosphere.  The GFS is forecasting a high of 89 degrees for Indianapolis but the NAM is forecasting a high of just 83!  I can’t remember the last time I saw a 6 degree spread of temperatures from major models on that day.  That is especially true when it comes to the summer months.  We’ve been splitting the difference over the past couple of days and we will continue to do so today.

We won’t see much sun today and data shows a quick round of storms being possible this morning from 9am through Noon for Central Indiana.  This cluster of storms would bring frequent lightning, rain and gusty winds to the area.  This round of rain will be along the warm front and satellite and radar data is already showing it developing in Illinois.  We will be watching it all morning long.  Further west skies are actually clear in Missouri right now so this afternoon may turn hot and steamy with large cumulonimbus clouds growing late in the afternoon.

This Evening and Overnight:

Tonight's storm will be strong.  Hail, wind and heavy rain all are expected.

Tonight’s storm will be strong. Hail, wind and heavy rain all are expected.

The moderate risk is in place due to the large complex of storms we expect to develop overnight.  In fact model data shows these storms likely out of the state by midnight tonight.  Strong winds, large hail and heavy rain will all be possible as this MCC develops and slides through the state.  Something limiting the flooding potential is going to be the speed of the strongest storms.  Still as I said on Wednesday of this week, this is a classic heavy rain set up and if we see training some communities could see in excess of 3 – 4 inches of rain.  There’s a reason July is the wettest month of the year, and that is because the potential for big rains peaks this month in most years.  For Indianapolis these storms could arrive as early as 8pm.  They likely won’t hit the city until around 9pm.

Race day:

The 21st running of the Brickyard 400 could be a soggy affair with rain possible during the race.  Model data shows wave 2 developing shortly after the race is set to begin with light to moderate rain being possible from 2pm through 8pm.  This wave is not expected to bring severe weather.

The day should get off to a good start as the state dries out from the strong storms the previous night.  Temperatures will still be fairly warm with highs expected to remain in the 80s.  It will be mostly cloudy and humid.  Winds will be out of the west southwest.

Next week:

The final round of rain slides through on Monday from this system and will be similar in nature to what we expect to see on Sunday.  Light to moderate rain with no severe weather is likely.  I do have some concerns as the Saturday system will be the cold front bringing behind it cooler air.  There’s a chance that as model data gets a better hold of Monday we may start exploring possibility of some storms with frontal passage.

Monday’s high should be in the 70s with rain keeping us out of the 80s.  The rest of the work week is looking mild with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.  Enjoy it!