Rain chances tick up today, best chance this week on Wednesday

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(Aug. 5, 2014) – Rain chances creep up today with scattered rain being possible.  At this point it continues to look like most of the rain showers and storms will arrive throughout the day on Wednesday with rain potentially beginning to fall before sunrise.  Clouds and rain will play a role in our high temps over the next couple of days. Highs today will likely be slightly cooler than yesterday due to the rain chance and also increased and blanketing cloud cover at times.

Today’s forecast:


Spotty showers will be possible across the city.  Parts of the area will wake up on Tuesday morning still moderately stable.  In fact the first wave of rain tried to roll through the area first thing this morning but was suppressed by the sinking air.  Cloud cover will increase from the breaking clouds that we saw yesterday.  At times today we will be looking at overcast skies.

Due to everything happening in the atmosphere, I have low confidence in how “on” my high temperature forecast will be.  I am slightly on the high side of the range of temperatures where we could land.  The reason I chose to do this is because I still think most of today will be dry.  Cloud cover will play a huge role in heating however and that by itself makes the forecast a tough one.  I am forecasting a high of 84.  I have been right on over the past two days so we will see.

Rare early August cool front:


One of the reasons for the changing forecast over the last week has been the arrival of a fairly rare cool front.  Generally in the heart of summer any fronts like this don’t have enough “oomph” to push to far south.  This year and this front are different.  Due to the front continuing to slide south with no signs of slowing we now have a pretty good idea of what we can expect over the next 96 hours.

Today we will see the front beginning to slide into the state.  It’s not moving fast and it won’t be through the state until Thursday, and at this point it is expected to stall out in northern Kentucky.  The front will act as a trigger for rain.  Rain chances will peak every afternoon as we see instability.

Today’s rain will focus over northern parts of the state.  Tomorrow, the I-70 corridor will see the highest chance for rain in the state.  Thursday will see southern parts of the state with the best chance for rain.  A mid-level disturbance, and the front lifting, means another good chance for rain on Friday for Indianapolis.