Severe risk dropped but soaking rains develop overnight
Due to an abundance of cloud cover today, the setup for severe weather is not looking like a sure thing here in central Indiana this evening. It now looks like scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop early this afternoon and continue across our viewing area this evening. An isolated strong or severe storm cannot be ruled out. Damaging winds and large hail would be possible if we did see a severe storms.
But the more likely scenario is that heavy rain will develop over central Indiana tonight and continue through Tuesday morning. We’ll see several waves of storms develop across our state, dumping heavy rain in the process. We already have an ample amount of moisture in the air, so several rounds of storms would support more than 1-2″ of rain falling and potentially some flooding issues. As you can see in Fox Futurecast above, rainfall amounts above 2-3″ cannot be ruled out either.
To say the least, flooding is the main concern for the next 24 hours. Heavy showers storms will move through the Ohio Valley dumping copious amounts of rainfall. Rain amounts back in central Illinois and Missouri could top 4-5″ total. Just west of our state line, a FLASH FLOOD WATCH has been issued through early Tuesday morning due to the heavy rain expected. You can basically draw a line from that watch directly northeast through the heart of our state for the heavy rain to also fall. Again, we could see a band of 1-3″ of rain overnight with locally higher amounts.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact central Indiana through Tuesday morning, so expect storms during the morning rush. We could easily still see bands of heavy rain falling as well, which would reduce visibility and continue the flooding threat. Be sure to check in with meteorologist Jim O’Brien as you start your day for the very latest on the rain and what to expect as you drive into work. Rain will eventually shift more to the south as we get closer to the lunch hour. By Tuesday afternoon, skies will turn partly cloudy and the rain chance will continue to diminish.