Severe weather possible tonight, rain around this morning too

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So much to talk about in today’s blog with a very active pattern setting up for the next week.  The top weather story for today is the threat of severe weather for parts of the state.  Rain will slide through the state this morning with the heaviest rain and storms tracking along and north of I-70.  Severe weather is not expected this morning but we do have parts of the state that are under a severe risk for later on tonight.  That when strong winds associated with a linear line of storms could roll through state.

Severe weather:

Dog Days

Once 5 pm hits we will begin to see a chance for severe weather.  Winds will be strong and gusty out of the south and will bump our temps up to the 80s.  The brief warm-up will be over as a cold front passes through tonight.  Just ahead or along the initial front we will see a line of storms likely developing.  Strong winds with gusts above 58 mph will be possible.  This is the reason why we are in a slight risk for severe weather.

This weekend:

Behind the strong storms comes much cooler weather.  In fact over the next 7 days the GFS is averaging a high temperature of about 62 degrees.  The next 7 days after that our high temperatures average around 54 degrees.  Cooler air is certainly on its way to here.

As we wake up on Friday morning we will see temperatures in the upper 60s with our high temperature likely being hit at midnight.  Light drizzle will be around the state and will continue off and on through much of the day.  Friday’s afternoon high will be in the low 60s.

Saturday will also have an early morning chance for rain with the arrival of the coldest air we have seen in some time.  At some point late Saturday morning temperatures in Indianapolis will likely fall to just below 40 degrees.  Frost will be possible for most of the state as the cool temps move in.  Clouds will be thick throughout the morning with us seeing some breaks in the clouds.  Saturday highs should be in the low 50s.

Sunday will be the best day of the weekend probably due to it being the driest.  There will be another late day chance for some rain and possibly a storm as another low pressure area rolls through during the afternoon and evening hours.  Sunday highs will be in the upper 50s.

Big changes:

JEN1

Looking ahead it looks like we can say goodbye to warmer 80s temperatures.  Last year October 4th was the last 80 degree day of the year.  I am not guaranteeing that we won’t hit 80 again this year, but it is quickly becoming more and more unlikely that we will hit that mark.  Over the next two weeks model data averages fall quickly.  The Average high for the next week starting on Friday is just 62 degrees.  For the next 7 days after that the average high is only 54.