Damp and foggy night, powerhouse autumn storm midweek

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DAMP AND COOL

Good evening – showers are headed north from southern Indiana this evening.  The rain eases east and targets most of the eastern half for the state. The system is minor and will be diminishing late tonight.  Showers are expected to end after midnight.

A nice Tuesday will develop after some early morning fog and the fog is developing tonight.

RPM model forecast visibility in miles

RPM model forecast visibility in miles

POTENT FALL STORM BREWING
The next autumn storm is taking shape out west tonight. Data suggests that this system will likely bring a wide-spread severe weather outbreak with it and could include central Indiana.

Much is still to be resolved with timing and strength. A powerful jet stream will emerge and enter southwest Indiana by Wednesday night. The nose of that jet stream will deepen a low pressure center overhead creating strong winds at the surface. As the air is lifted it draws in air to fill the void. The fast the lift, the stronger the winds flow. This deepening overhead will lead to strong non-thunderstorm winds to develop. Gusts of up to 50 mph are possible and could go even higher should convection/t-storms develop.

Regional 18z RPM 4km-12km 72hr PRESSURE LINES

The nose of the jet stream is also a region where air is lifted and piles up quickly. That strong, vertical build may be enough for a thunderstorm or two to develop and to reach up to the strong winds just above the earth’s surface. Should this occur, even strong er winds could be brought down to the ground. Damaging wind gusts are possible in and around t-storms. (I’m posting the forecast winds (50 knots = 57 mph winds) at 2500 feet above ground.

namFLT_925_spd_057

Again, much more info will be available later tonight. The Current timing for possible strongest winds and t-storms favors late after 10 PM Wednesday through midnight Thursday diminishing before 3 AM.

The Storm Prediction Center as out-looked a large portion of the US for possible severe storms Wednesday and does include a portion of Indiana. Be sure to check back tomorrow, these areas will be adjusted and revised. (Day 3).

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