Snow and colder, a winter blast this weekend; new warm up coming for Thanksgiving

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Happy Friday and good evening from the weather center. Who's ready for winter? The mild November may have you spoiled - snow and much colder air is on the move arriving this weekend.

The fast moving system is expected to run west to east tracking from south-central Iowa to north central Indiana by Saturday evening. This storm track places the heaviest snow north of it's track from northern Iowa into far northern Indiana. Currently heavy snow falling at mason City, Spencer and Sioux City , Iowa.

WXIN Default

Clippers are always a devil to forecast given their speed and limited amounts of moisture. This evening computer forecasts are now resembling some consistency but are struggling with timing.

Rain to wet snow from west to east Saturday mid morning through early afterrnoon

Rain to wet snow from west to east Saturday mid morning through early afternoon

Sorting this out - we are on the warm side of the system early Saturday, well above freezing. As the low approaches, rain will spread across the state from west to east. Colder air is wrapping in behind the storm center. Rain will mix to big, wet snow flakes perhaps by 2 PM in Indianapolis then end cut off quickly.

Accumulating snow favors far northern Indiana where winter weather advisories are in effect. Locally - a slushy, grassy accumulation of a .5" to 1.5" are possible mainly from Indianapolis north.  Further north,  up to 2" could accumulate from a Lafayette to Marion line north.  Roads may be in good shape as ground temperature are still warm.  Use caution if travelling Saturday especially into northern Indiana.

I'm posting the probability of a 2" snowfall off the Nation Weather Service 27 model ensemble. Also below, the Midwest and central Indiana snow accumulation forecast off the RPM computer model. (UPDATES coming later tonight as new data becomes available.)

NWS probability of 2" snowfall

NWS probability of 2" snowfall

The brevity of the snow and the temperatures above freezing will limit most of the accumulation to grassy areas and roof tops. As colder air arrives, new snow showers could develop closer to sunset in the northern counties. A few slick spots may develop with minor additional accumulation. Snow is out fast - ending west tot east by midnight.

RPM snowfall forecast. Accumulation most likely north Saturday.

RPM snowfall forecast. Accumulation most likely north Saturday.

Much colder air wraps around the system on a northwest wind through the afternoon and evening. Brace for a jarring temperature drop into the teens by Sunday morning.

ADI 18z RPM 4km Wind Chill

THANKSGIVING: warm and moist! Milder air returns next week building to the 50s by Wednesday. Thanksgiving is still forecast to be the warmest in three years with only a slight chance of light rain or a passing shower.

Euro weather map Thanksgiving afternoon

Euro weather map Thanksgiving afternoon