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Warming ahead to start holiday weekend; rain for Black Friday shoppers

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TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE

A shift in the upper level winds and warming underway as we head toward Thanksgiving. Temperatures are warmer Monday night, 15° to 20° warmer than same time Sunday.

We thaw out in time for the bird - climbing well into the 50s Wednesday and Thursday. This will be the warmest Thanksgiving since 2012's 63° and much warmer than last years 31° high temperatures.

Regional 18z Yesterday RPM 12km Temperature

RPM forecast temperatures Thursday 12 noon. Could we reach 60°?

2015 will be warmest Thanksgiving in 3 years.

2015 will be warmest Thanksgiving in 3 years.

Quiet weather will hold until Thursday night then rain chances will rise. Showers develop and may be rather persistent through early afternoon Friday. The early take of total rainfall could reach 1" in spots. More on the rain departure and its impact on the holiday lighting ceremonies downtown in the days ahead.

5 day total rainfall from NWS

5 day total rainfall from NWS

5 day total rain comparison from 2 long range model specific to Indianapolis

5 day total rain comparison from 2 long range model specific to Indianapolis

COLDER END TO HOLIDAY WEEKEND - NEW SYSTEM?

After the rain Friday as shallow layer of cold air will settle in Saturday and Sunday.  There are some hints that light rain or a mix of rain and sleet may spread across the state Sunday morning.  This is not the consensus take just yet but something that bears watching.   I'm posting the latest US model weather map for Sunday morning.  Compared to 2 other long range models this is the wettest.  Stay tuned.

US model fcst weather map Sunday AM

US model forecast weather map Sunday AM.

NOVEMBER STILL WARM

Despite the cold weekend that produced single digits lows under the heaviest of snow pack, November 2015 is still running warm. The average temperature 49.2° is still among the warmest 10% on record.

After the weekend snowfall that topped 4" to 5" in a band northwest of Indianapolis, snow chances look limited for a little while. There are some hints of a chance of snow later next week. Currently 17% of the nation is snow covered - exactly the same amount as last year at this time.

nsm_depth_2015112305_National