Warm spell underway; records will fall as rain chances rise
WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND
The warm spell is just getting started! Good evening form the weather center. The afternoon temperature reached 55° Tuesday – warmest for a December 8th in 24 years.
The mild, Pacific flow of air will continue into the weekend as storms line up across the Pacific ocean. Our pattern will be turning active – several storms will parade across the nation over the next 2 weeks.
The first arrives this weekend with unseasonably mild / record level warmth ahead of it. Temperatures are expected to run 25° above normal and possibly break an 88 year old record for the date Saturday (63° 1927/1877). The stretch of 50° plus warmth is forecast to reach 7 consecutive days. This will be the longest consecutive 50 degree or higher spell in a December in 62 years.
The southerly winds will transport rich, moist air north and bring healthy rainfall to much of the state. Estimated at 1″ to 2″ possible. of course with such a potent storm system and the record warmth, thunderstorms are also possible.
A COLD TURN IN THE WORKS
Where is winter? The strong El Nino (warm pacific waters) is driving the mild flow. Propping up the normally weakened southern or sub-tropical jet stream. The flow is split across the nation – meaning the polar jet is stuck up north and the tropical jet holds it’s own blasting into the western U.S. This pattern – typical of El Nino winters is this winters default pattern. Will it break? Yes, at times.
A pattern shift is still in the works mid-month with a pronounced push of colder air dropping south. This could bring snow chances up as we make the turn toward Christmas week. Stay tuned!