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Strong storms with severe potential move through Indiana

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STORM CHANCES RISE

A line of thunderstorms will continue to develop across eastern Illinois ;ate this afternoon and sweep the state this evening.  Currently as of 2 p.m. the Storm Prediction Center is considering a watch box for a portion of the state.

 

NWS considers a watch box for a portion of Indiana Thursday

NWS considers a watch box for a portion of Indiana Thursday

After early morning rain, the atmosphere is trying to become unstable again to support stronger to severe storms.  Current thinking is that the air will have some success but not enough to produce a wide-spread outbreak of severe storms. We will monitor.

UPDATE 5 PM:  The cap is holding, the storms are failing to reach severe levels and thunder and lightning is limited.  We will continue to monitor.

A 'cap'  - or stable air - remains over much of the state at 2:30 p.m. When present, it limits thunderstorms growth.  Extended dry time and stronger winds could erode the capping effects and allow stronger storms to form and build rapidly. The capped areas are shaded in blue below.

Stable air over indiana as of 2:30 PM

Stable air over Indiana as of 2:30 PM

 

Thunderstorms, a few strong and possibly an isolated severe storm, will develop west nearing the state line around 4 PM.  The line of storms will sweep the state from west to east exiting western Indiana around 9 p.m.  The current threat is for locally damaging wind gusts and large hail.  We will have up to date forecasts throughout the afternoon.

 

Latest HRRR Central Indiana Composite Radar

Forecast radar 4 PM Thursday

Thunderstorm Timeline

 

MARCH 2016 HEADED FOR RECORD BOOKS

To date March 2016's average temperate of 48.9° ranks 8th warmest ever.  The add warmth today may nudge us a touch higher.  The warmest March was just four years ago in 2012 ( average 56.8°).  Weather records have been kept for 145 years.