Storm threat returning tonight, risk of severe storms continues

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CLOUDS ARE A GOOD THING

The lack of sunshine had a huge impact on our weather Thursday.  The lack of sun has done two things - held down the afternoon temperatures along with the heat index and more importantly has kept the atmosphere from becoming unstable.  That is changing.

Clouds are thinning and temps are warming.  More dry time and added sunshine will allow a 'cap' on the atmosphere to break.  The limitation in vertical cloud build up will diminish in a few hours.  When this 'cap' as described by meteorologist breaks, storms will develop rapidly.

WXIN Default

LATEST STORM TIMING

New storms are expected to forms starting after 5 PM Thursday.  A upper disturbance in northern Indiana will instate the storms this evening.  The storms could rapidly become strong to severe and reach 30 to 40% areal coverage before midnight.  I'm posting below the Hi-res forecast radar for 9 PM Thursday.

Latest HRRR Central Indiana Composite Radar

Thunderstorm Timeline

The latest Storm Prediction Centers SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast) probability of severe thunderstorms ending 8 pm is highest over west central Indiana later this evening.   This model supports the fast storm development to our west early this evening.

Probablity of sevre storms ending 11 pm

Three hour probability of  severe storms ending 8 pm Thursday

OVERNIGHT STORM COMPLEX?

The second round and potentially heavier hitting round of storms is looking more like it will sidestep central Indiana.  The thinking is that  the complex would form later tonight and dive toward far southwest Indiana and Kentucky.  We will keep you up to date should that solution change.

Regional 18z RPM 4km-12km 72hr

UPDATED 9 PM:

The latest Storm Prediction Center's day one severe weather outlook has removed the 'slight risk' assesment for all of Indiana.  A few gusty storms are still possible.

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SEVERE STORM THREAT FRIDAY

With high levels of humidity and warming expected again on Friday new storms are likely by afternoon and evening.  The threat of severe storms will return again on Friday before a cold front sweeps the state.  Storm chances will rise by early afternoon.  A portion of Indiana is once again under a 'slight risk' for severe storms per the Storm Prediction Center.

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