October is underway and a warm is coming; 30 day outlook issued

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PESKY LOW FINALLY ON THE MOVE

The upper low that has lingered and churned overhead for days is finally on the move.  Settling into southern Indiana Friday evening the low is slowly lifting north and will depart the state on Sunday.  The counter-clockwise churn overhead has produced an extend spell of cooler than normal temperatures and occasional showers and thunderstorm since Wednesday.  Any lingering showers this afternoon and evening will diminish through 12 AM.

The cool, damp conditions persist over night with areas of fog expected through Sunday morning.

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A warmer and drier pattern takes shape for a few days as the jet stream carries the persistent low away.  Sunshine and temperature climbing through the 70s are expected and possibly topping 80° by mid week.  Showers and thunderstorms are possible as a cold front approach Thursday morning.

Forecast weather map Thursday morning

Forecast weather map Thursday morning

WARM SEPTEMBER

September 2015 ended on a coll stretch but he month will enter the record books as the 15th warmest on record.  70% of the averaged above normal.  Meteorological fall is warm and ranks among the warmest 10% on record.  Weather records date back 145 years.

fall-temperatures

OCTOBER OUTLOOK

A warming trend is underway this week and look out over the next few weeks signals support an overall warmer than normal pattern.  There will be periodic cooling as a flat, west to east pattern carries a few storms along, but those spells look to be brief until late in the month.  The latest National Weather Service outlook for October temperatures supports a higher probability of above normal temperatures for most of the nation.

30-day-outlook

COOLER TIMES COMING

It is October – a month that ties for the second fastest to cool and loses 1 hour and 13 minutes of daylight by Halloween.  The average first frost occurs on the 12th and the average first freeze comes on the 23rd.  October can produce snow, averaging .4″.  The most snow ever to fall in an October came in 1989 with 9.3″

frost-freeze-dates

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