WARM STRETCH GETTING UNDERWAY
A warmer and drier pattern takes shape for the upcoming work week as the jet stream carries the persistent upper-low away. Monday was the first afternoon since last Tuesday to top the 70 degree mark. Sunshine and temperatures climbing through the 70s and surpassing 80° is expected by mid week.
Rain chances are looking quite slim and at this distance the best chance and the likelihood of rain of significant coverage may not arrive until Friday.
LATE SEASON 80° WARMTH
We scanned 145 years of weather records and determined that we average only 2, 80 degree days from October 1st to the end of the year. The most, 14 occurrences in 1963.
We are likely to see a two this week alone. The warmth will build as the week progresses with a high temperate into the low to mid 80s by Thursday. Thursday's high could be as much as 15 degree above normal.
WARM FALL SO FAR
September 2015 ended on a cool stretch but the month will entered the record books as the 14th warmest on record. 70% of the averaged above normal.
Monday marked the 23rd day that has averaged above normal since September first. Meteorological Fall, the months of September, October and November to date ranks among the warmest 10% on record, currently 15th.
A warming trend is underway this week and look out over the next few weeks signals support an overall warmer than normal pattern. There will be periodic cooling as a flat, west to east pattern carries a few storms along, but those spells look to be brief until late in the month. The latest National Weather Service outlook for October temperatures supports a higher probability of above normal temperatures for most of the nation.
COOLER TIMES COMING
It is October - a month that ties for the second fastest to cool and loses 1 hour and 13 minutes of daylight by Halloween. The average first frost occurs on the 12th and the average first freeze comes on the 23rd. October can produce snow, averaging .4". The most snow ever to fall in an October came in 1989 with 9.3"