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Rain returns to close the month; Gusty and Severe storm chances being monitored for Thursday

MORE RAIN

We enjoyed sunshine and dry time Wednesday afternoon but changes are underway to our west.  A new storm system that erupted with severe weather Tuesday and will do so again west of us tonight will bring the threat of rain back to central Indiana overnight.  No severe weather is expected here tonight or through early Thursday morning but a rumble or two of thunder may be heard starting after midnight.

The Soggy month of march - currently running a half-inch above normal in the precipitation department - is going to get wetter.  Over 3.7" has fallen this month making this the wettest March in 9 years to date.

Rain is forecast Thursday and Friday with an average rainfall for Indianapolis at .72" of a variety of precipitation generating machine forecasts.  The range is .41" to 1.12".  Amounts will vary widely in and around thunderstorms.

Multi-model rainfall forecast for Indianapolis. Average off this ensemble at .77"

STORM THREAT THURSDAY

As the storm system nears the showers and thunderstorms come along with it.  It appears to come in two waves.  The first early morning showers and thunderstorms are expected to thin out in coverage and intensity.  The second wave of showers and storms is expected to emerge later into the afternoon and evening.  The is much still to resolve if this approaching squall line will strengthen and become severe.  Much will have to do whether the atmosphere here 'recovers' or becomes unstable to support stronger storms after the clouds and early morning rain.  The insulating effects of the early rain could prevent severe storms here from becoming severe.  Dry time late morning and the extent of it is still to be determined.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a portion of central and south central Indiana under a 'slight risk'  for Thursday.  A watch box may be required Thursday afternoon.  We will keep you posted.  Primary severe elements include hail, damaging wind and there is a threat should severe storms develop to produce a tornado.  Be sure to check back later tonight.