Gusty winds fuel Wednesday warm up; New month and colder pattern emerges

STREAK SNAPPED

Streak of consecutive above normal days has been snapped at 11 days.   Tuesday was the 30th below normal day of our winter.

Despite the harsh cold and number of nights below zero this winter (9),  it is a 50-50 split in days above vs days below. We are currently 5-degrees colder than last winter.

We make a new run at 50-degrees Wednesday and to end the month. Talk about a volatile winter - as we explained months ago. The temperature swings have been pronounced, expected and are leading tho the many potholes around the city!   January opened coldest ever and has now produced (7) 50-degree days!
A passing warm front early Wednesday will allow warm, southwest winds to flood the state with March-like air again.

COLDER DAYS COMING

There is no doubt that the long advertised pattern changes will get underway as the new month opens.

Last February was the warmest on record and right now we could be headed to payback land. Cold weather indicators are going negative and signalling that colder air is on the move. several cold blasts and likelihood of colder than normal weather.

When the arctic air leaves the Arctic the indicators here go negative.  This Arctic Oscillation or movement can telegraph colder times ahead.  This signal along with other teleconnections across the northern hemisphere give some clue as where temperatures are headed overall in medium range forecast.

I'm posting below the 6-10, 8-14 and long range temp probability for February below. And, as we often say - where there is cold there will be snow. Snow chances will come along and will be more identifiable in the days ahead!