A chilly weekend then a stormy pattern develops

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COLDEST AIR IN NEARLY 2 WEEKS

Chilly air settles into central Indiana as the weekend gets underway.  Snow showers blew across the state and diminished early friday evening.  Most areas underneath the more vigorous snow showers saw visibility drop with a quick coating of snow put down.  In Whiteland there was a report of 1″ of snow later in the afternoon.  By sunset most of the snow showers had departed the state.

Under clearing skies temperatures have dipped quickly.  By sunrise Saturday the temperature is forecast to slide to 16° – coldest here since February 4th (17°).  Saturday afternoon will be cold.  The temperatures are expected to remain in the middle 20’s, 15° below the normal high this time of the year.  scattered snow showers are once again possible through the day.  The snow showers will once again diminish around sunset and skies will clear out for a cold Sunday morning.

Sunday will remain chilly – with mostly sunny skies.  The attention then turns to a series of strong storm systems expected to parade across the U.S. over the next 12 days.  The first storm moves in Monday with milder temperatures and rain.  A switch to snow is possible late monday night into Tuesday.  4 storms are possible over the next 12 days.  More below.

WINTER 2012-2013

While colder and snowier than last winter, this winter has been mild.  temperatures are once again expected to be above normal Thursday possibly reaching 50° and making this the warmest St. Valentine’s Day in 7 years.  The average high is now 40°.

Meteorological Winter is the months of December, January and February.  Since December 1st, 47 days have been above normal – that’s 63%.  This winter is running 3.5° colder than last but that’s not saying much.  Last winter ranked in the top 10 warmest and snowfall was shy of 10″.  We have had 18″ of snow this season two and half times more than last year.   Snow lovers are broken-hearted on this Valentine’s day, only 3.9″ of snow has fallen since January 1st the normal is 12″. (Could a snowy pattern be emerging over the next two weeks?  More on that in a moment)

Seasonal Temps

PATTERN TURNS COLD

The long advertised switch to a colder second half of February gets underway this weekend.  Two cold fronts will pass the state by early Friday and usher in late season arctic air.  High temperatures are expected to be quite chilly Saturday – possibly not even reaching the upper 20’s.  A break out of forecast temperatures over the next 16 days looks quite cold.  The recent stretch of mild weather has pushed the average temperature for the month now above normal  the surplus looks to be erased as a series of cold jabs are forecast

AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE FROM NORMAL

PAST 5 DAYS: +6°   Next 5 Days: -5°   Days 6-10: -13°   Days 11-16: -17°

STORMY PATTERN EVOLVES

We have identified 4 storm systems over the next two weeks that given the colder pattern will be watched closely for the potential of snow.  Each looks like they can be big snow makers here or nearby but at this distance it is still unclear.  The first arrives Monday/Tuesday next week.  The storms are expected to impact central Indiana February 19th, 22nd,24th and the 26th.  The first 2 look to favor a rain to snow set up while the second two favor more snow.  Be sure to check in.  The second half of February could get interesting.

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