Central Indiana saw sunny conditions on Sunday along with a slight warm up in temperatures. The high in Indianapolis hit 32°F which was still 9 degrees below normal for this time of year. A steady wind from the southeast will develop tonight and clouds will start to increase. These two features along with warm air advection will lead to nearly steady temperatures after midnight and the low shouldn’t go past the mid 20s for Monday morning. Skies will be partly cloudy to start the day along with a breezy southeast wind.
Clouds continue to build on Monday as our next low pressure system moves in from the west and warmth builds. Temperatures will easily climb into the mid 40s by the afternoon hours but temperatures will continue to climb past sunset. We should hit 50°F before the cold front arrives late Monday night. As for rainfall, spotty rain showers will start developing after 2 PM in our western counties. But the better chance for rain, especially here in the metro, will start arriving between 4-6 PM. Steady rain showers, isolated rumbles of thunder and breezy conditions are expected throughout the late afternoon and evening. Winds will be coming in from the south at 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
Cold air will wrap in quickly behind the cold front and this will start changing over rain to snow going into Tuesday morning. Our western counties will be lucky to get even a dusting as moisture will be pushing off quickly to the east before it can fully change to snow. And even if you do get that narrow band of snow to develop, the ground will be too wet for it to stick.
The chance for snow is a little bit better east of Indianapolis. This is where there will be more moisture left between 3-6 AM on Tuesday and snow showers could be vigorous enough to produce some light accumulations. Most of the models are picking up less than 1″ of snow. And 1″ would likely be the high end with most totals ranging from a few tenths to maybe a half inch. Remember, the ground will be saturated after the rain so when it starts snowing, it won’t stick right away.
Temperatures fall Tuesday afternoon back into the mid 20s. Skies will be mostly sunny by Wednesday with temperatures in the upper 20s. Another major system is heading our way for Thursday afternoon through Friday morning and it’s still the one to watch. As of right now, the weather models bring in a combination of rain, sleet and freezing rain on Thursday afternoon as the warm front arrives. Cold air will be hard to displace at the surface and this will cause refreezing of precipitation as it falls through this shallow cold layer. Because of this, sleet and freezing rain look possible Thursday afternoon with continued freezing rain Thursday night. It’s still a little too early to tell, but seeing some accumulating ice isn’t out of the question.