Under the influence of a steady south wind, temperatures will quickly rise near the 50 degree mark this afternoon. We should normally top out around 41°F, so this is considered pretty warm for this time of year. It will also be a windy day with winds from the south at 15 to 25 mph and gusts up to 30 mph. This high wind field is also called a “low level jet” and it’s known for bringing in warm conditions and ample moisture.
Speaking of moisture, rainfall will return this afternoon. Spotty showers will develop around 3 PM in our western locations. By 6 PM, rain showers will start pushing further east and encompassing more of Central Indiana. There’s isn’t a ton of instability with this system here in Central Indiana so severe weather isn’t going to be an issue this afternoon. But you can’t rule out a few rumbles of thunder between 6-8 PM. Rain is likely to continue through 2 AM (lasting until 4 AM in our very eastern counties).
Before the rain turns to snowfall overnight, we will probably see .4-.7″ of liquid precipitation out of this system. The heaviest rain will fall in our southwest locations.
On the tail end of the rainfall will be a quick change over to a very wet snow. This change over process will take place from 2 to 7 AM. Due to how small the window is for snow and the wet nature of the snow, it will be difficult to accumulate. A dusting or less is expected in the western half of the state. Up to a half-inch of snow is possible in the eastern half of the state where snow showers will be a bit more vigorous.
Here’s the snowfall prediction numbers for early Tuesday morning. We could see some isolated slick spots, especially as temperatures fall and freezing sets in on the roads. But overall, this is not going to be a big snow event.
Temperatures snap back to winter-like levels for Tuesday as cold air takes over. Highs will only reach the low 30s.