Historic late season snow storm possible Sunday and Monday

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WEEKEND STORM UPDATE: WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED

Winter Advisories ADI

Winter Storm Watch
Through Monday AM

The long advertised weekend snow storm is still on track and the latest data into the weather center suggests the storm track is still favoring a band of heavy snow through the heart of Indiana.   There is very good agreement in the storm track and the confidence in snow amounts is rather high.

The timing is still up for debate as well.  It looks like it will arrive a little later in the day Sunday into Sunday night.  (This is a slower solution that previous runs) snow and possibly a mix of rain will spread north from Southern Indiana early Sunday and head northbound by evening.  Heavy snow is likely to develop in the city toward sunset Sunday.

The average of four machine forecasts available precipitation is impressive.  For the city of Indianapolis the average is .74″.  Three-quarters of liquid would translate to a 7.5″ snowfall using the standard 10:1 ratio.  This would be record territory.  The range of snowfall for the city runs from 6″ to 8″ but given the time of the year (higher sun angle and a wetter snow) accumulation amounts could vary a couple of inches (or at a 8:1 ratio).

Our current forecast is for 6″ to 10″ area wide but this is not a final take on the storm that is still 2.5 days away.  We will have updated snow amounts later tonight.

Strom_Track

Heavy snow likely Sunday into Monday
6″ to 10″ possible

BLOCKING PATTERN HOLDS: DAY 35

Since February 15, a pattern change developed in the northern hemisphere.  Known as the “Greenland Block”, this feature has played a prominent role in our winter weather for several years.  It was absent last Winter and we went on to have one of the warmest, least snowiest Winters ever.  We also had an amazingly warm March (warmest ever) and Spring that eventually led to the dry and extremely hot Summer.  Well it’s back and in a big way.

Greenland Block
Blocking pattern keeps cold over eastern U.S.

Long Range forecasts have handled this feature well and continue to show the relentless pattern will last for at least the next 2.5 weeks.  Average high temperatures are likely to remain a stunning 15 to 20 degrees below normal.  It is possible we may not reach 50° or higher until the second week of April!

Meteogram Dep from Norm

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