NOTE: This post is from APRIL 17, 2013, and DOES NOT REFLECT the current weather trends for NOVEMBER 2013.
The Storm Prediction Center just updated the severe weather threat for Thursday and this proves to be significant for Central Indiana.
Portions of Central Indiana are now under a “MODERATE RISK” of severe storms on Thursday. This is the area colored in red above. It basically includes all locations west of Indianapolis. The rest of our area is still under a “SLIGHT RISK” which also needs to be taken seriously. This is the area in yellow above.
What does this mean?
A moderate risk for severe storms means that severe storms are likely to move into an area. These storms pack more of a punch and tend to cause more damage. On days with a moderate risk of severe weather, you should be actively checking radar and watching weather updates on TV or online. Be hyper-vigilant about being informed tomorrow.
What are the main threats tomorrow?
We are in a highly sheared environment Thursday and this typically supports tornado development. A long line of storms will develop and within this line, areas of rotation will materialize. We could even see some isolated supercells that form ahead of this front. But with strong shear in place, tornadoes that do develop will have the potential to have long track and longer lived. Swaths of widespread damaging winds appear to be likely and damage could be significant.
When does this start?
Storms will be on going tomorrow morning to our west in Illinois along the frontal boundary. It will take some time for that boundary to reach Central Indiana. But with strong winds from the south tomorrow and heat building, ample moisture and energy will be available for this line of storms to strengthen as they arrive to the area in the evening. Isolated supercells could develop throughout the day on Thursday but the main line of severe storms should move through late Thursday afternoon and into the evening. The timing could still slow down or speed up depending on what the front does tomorrow. We’ll continue to monitor it and bring you the latest.