Coolest late July spell in 42 years, rain chance coming

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DRY SUMMER

The summer months have turned dry for much of Central Indiana.  Area rain gauges are collecting some dust.  Since June 1, the city is now 1.69″ below normal with Eastern Indiana even drier.  Shelbyville is now 3″ below normal.  During this time of year, the late July sun can deplete the soil of up to a .25″ of an inch per day. In other words, we get dry fast this time of year.

Rain Departure From Normal

Rainfall from Normal

RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT

Showers will arrive Tuesday during the afternoon and increase in coverage and intensity.  Rainfall amounts  will vary and may target the southern third of the state with the highest totals.  Very limited instability is expected, so the chance of t-storms looks small.  Any storms that develop will bring locally higher rainfall amounts.  The average of six various computer models have generated .50″ of rainfall for the city.  The amounts vary widely from as little as .12″ to as much as 1.13″.  Why such a wide range?  This is due most likely because of the direction the system is taking – more of a southerly track . It’s also due to the fact that some machines are trying to factor in more t-storms.  We will update these numbers late Monday and early Tuesday morning.

COOLEST END TO A JULY IN 42 YEARS

Since the 91° high last Tuesday, we have failed to reach the 80° mark.  A scan of weather records shows we have not had this kind of cool so late in a July since July of 1971, 42 years ago.  Last year, we were ending the month like we started it – very hot, with 90 and 100 degree heat.  July 2012 would end as the hottest July on record.  Currently, this July is running at a average temperatures of 74.5 degrees (ranked 23 on record), almost 10 degrees cooler than last July.

COOL SPELL CONTINUES – INTO MID AUGUST

The daily high temperatures over the past five days have average eight degrees off the normal.  A 2.5 week forecast off the U.S. GFS long range computer model suggests no heat is coming.  Here is the high temperature departure from normal forecast over the next 16 days:

DAYS 1-5: -7°

DAYS 6-10: -5°

DAYS 11-16: -6.5

814temp Monday 7-29_2013

NWS 8-14 day outlook