Storm chance rises tonight along with temperatures and humidity

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WARM FRONT LATE

A switch in the winds Tuesday brought a jump in temperatures and humidity to central Indiana Wednesday.  Afternoon skies turned mostly sunny and the thermometer reached the 80s for the first time since last Friday.  The downtown temperature jumped reaching 85° around 5 PM but the humidity really took off.  The dew point temperature rose some 15 degrees from Tuesday afternoon.

Summer level warmth is expected Thursday as clouds in the morning thin for hazy sunshine,  The warm air flows into the state and with enough rain free hours and sunshine it is possible a few area thermometers push near 90°.  It is rare for 90° this late in the season, only 25 years on record have produced a 90 degree day this late in the season.

STORM COMPLEX LATE NIGHT

Gusty storms along the warm front have been forming since late Wednesday afternoon over the Chicago area bringing torrential rain.  over 1.5″ of rain had fallen over the city and Flash Flood Warnings were issued.  These storms are expected to slide southeast during the overnight hours and bring vivid lightning and locally heavy downpours to parts of north central and northeast central Indiana toward sunrise.  High resolution short-term weather forecast models indicate theses storms have a chance of reaching the city toward sunrise.

Lightning Tracker

Radar 9:45 PM

NEED THE RAINFALL

Since August 10th only .58″ of rain has fallen – this is the 3rd driest spell for these dates on record.  The last time we had officially a .50″ rain or more in the city was 6 weeks ago back on August 3rd.  The consensus of computer rainfall forecasts suggests this will be a good rainfall for us.  An average of 8 computer models places .66″ of rain down here in the city.  The spread or range of numbers runs from .15″ to 1.21″ – an indication that convection or thunderstorms will be in the mix.  Showers and storms are possible early Thursday and widely scattered Thursday afternoon but the best coverage should arrive as the slow-moving line of storm drops south Friday afternoon and evening.

Rainfall_Comparison

Projected Rainfall off 8 computers