MID NOVEMBER REPORT CARD: CHILLY
Reaching the midway point of November — the cool stretch keeps rolling on with a big interruption expected this weekend. 10 of the first 15 days have averaged below normal producing an average temperatures of 42.7°, good for the 36th coolest first 2 weeks of November on record. The average temperature to date is warmer than last November by 1.3 degrees. Only two days have reached the 60° mark this month but the chilly pattern really took hold mid-October. Since Oct 15th 24 of the past 31 days have been below normal – ranks 9th coolest ever for the time period.
A south wind this weekend is forecast to elevate temperature here into the 60s – peaking in the upper 60s Sunday afternoon before a cold front passes. The current forecast of 68° Sunday would be the warmest here since October 15th 66°.
Rain numbers are rather high and expected to come in waves. First push of rain and possibly a few t-storms would arrive late Saturday evening and overnight into Sunday morning. The second push comes when a cold front sweeps the state Sunday evening. The average rainfall off 7 computers averages .73” for the city with a range from .18” to 1.34”. The large spread hints that thunderstorms will be a factor, with locally higher totals in and around thunderstorms.
The Forecast weekend Autumn storm still on track to intensify starting Sunday AM through Monday AM. The central pressure will drop rapidly creating a large/strong wind field. Non thunderstorm wind gusts could reach 40 mph Sunday afternoon. Combined with warmer and more unstable air, there is a potential for a few t-storms to develop and to pull down locally stronger wind gusts. The image below is the forecast weather map for Sunday at 7 PM. A line of storms is currently forecast to develop early in the afternoon and sweep east after sunset. There is still plenty to be resolved in this forecast – timing, location and available unstable air is not clear just yet but will be fine-tuned later tonight and Saturday. Stay tuned.
The Storm Prediction Center’s “slight risk” outlook for Sunday is quite large for this time of year, 13 states and 52 million people could be affected.