Bitter cold backs off, wetter pattern emerging to open February

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BITTER COLD

Early morning temperatures Tuesday were brutally cold especially north and northeast of Indianapolis.  Thermometers reached -18° in Hartford City and -17° at Peru – actual air temperatures.  In the city the low of -6 was the 7th time this season with a sub-zero temperature ties the 1996-1997 season.

Skies will remain clear overnight – allowing for another night below zero.  What little wind we do have will be strong enough to produce a wind chill of -15° to -25° into early morning Wednesday.  A Wind Chill advisory is in effect until noon Wednesday with wind chill warnings out further north.

Low_temps

Low temperature
Tuesday Morning

RELENTLESS COLD

Winter 2013-2014 to date is now the 12th coldest on record with an average temperature of 25.5° and coldest here in 32 years!  The wickedly cold winter of 1981-1982 finished with an  average temperature of 24.7°.  Since December 1st (the start of Meteorological Winter) 65% of the days have been below normal.

Below Zero Stats

More nights below zero

Winter Stats
This winter ranks as one of the coldest and coldest in 32 years

“WARMING” TREND

Southwest winds will increase Wednesday afternoon and help elevate temperatures back to the 20’s in eh afternoon.  The bitter cold backs off tomorrow with a warming trend expected through early Saturday.  High temperatures Thursday and Friday could push above freezing and possibly peak in the lower 40s briefly very early Saturday morning.

SNOW AND RAIN CHANCES

Clouds will increase again starting late Wednesday and thicken Thursday with a chance of snow developing by Thursday evening.  A fresh coating of snow is possible by late Thursday or for the morning  commute Friday.  Temperatures will rise above Freezing Friday afternoon allowing for some light rain and drizzle to fall.  Rain showers are more likely Friday night into Saturday morning as a wave of low pressure rides northeast through the state.  The system drags a cold front through Saturday afternoon bringing colder and drier air for Sunday.  Should enough moisture linger a change to snow is possible Saturday night.  We will monitor the timing of the potential turn to snow through the week.

PATTERN SHIFT

Not a full-blown change but a shift in the upper air patter is underway – one that opens the Gulf of Mexico for business.  Long Range models are hinting at a wet, southern system by the middle of next week.  It is still too far out to determine where the rain/snow line will set up and the amount of moisture but bears close watch for the next several days.

NO EARLY SPRING

Extended forecasting out the next 2.5 weeks is still supporting colder than normal weather into February.  Resurgent cold will likely be a frequent visitor through middle February.  There will certainly be a few days of warmer temperatures but that would be quite brief – frequent cold blasts are expected with an overall picture painted with below normal temperatures.  Here is a1 16 day breakdown of average high temperatures.

PAST 5 DAYS: -11°

DAYS 1-5: -19°

DAYS 6-10: -12°

DAYS 11-16: -20°

8-14 Day 1-28-2014

NWS 8-14 day temperature outlook