Stormy pattern emerging, several snow chances coming

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COLD EASING

We cracked the freezing mark in the city Thursday and will likely do it again Friday and Saturday – a nice reprieve and a whole sale break from the arctic air.  The tradeoff is an increased wet and more active weather pattern.  To date Winter 2013-2014 is among the coldest 8% on record with an average temperature of 24.9° and ranks 12th on record.

SNOW CHANCES RISE

A front approaching Thursday night will sweep snow through the city after 7 PM, then diminish quickly.  Gusty winds are possible through midnight as a cold front settles south and stalls out over central Indiana.  The burst of snow could produce a quick coating and reduce visibility quickly then end.

FRONT STALLS – NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES

Snow showers are in forecast overnight and Friday with the stalled front, while a  2nd system (of 3) pushes more snow in along with a wintry mix into the state late Friday night into Saturday morning.  A couple of inches of snow could fall especially north before switching to a period of sleet and freezing rain then transition to rain by sunrise Saturday.  Icy roads are possible early Saturday morning but will improve as temps climb above freezing before sunrise.

FOX_Futurecast

RPM forecast Midnight Saturday

Travel north early Saturday and your running into snow. Winter storm watches hoisted in NW Indiana. Snow accumulation of 4″- 6″ possible by Saturday evening. Locally snow accumulation much lower as temperatures rise by daybreak Saturday.

Snowfall_foreast

Forecast snow through Saturday evening

Winter Advisories ADI

WILD TEMPERATURE DROP

Saturday will reach the 40° mark in the city but it will not last long.  Winds shift behind the departs low pressure and colder air flows into the city again.  With left over moisture, rain showers will change to snow showers before ending early Sunday morning.  It is possible a new coating of snow will accompany this front.

SUNNY – COLD END TO WEEKEND

Quiet weather will develop for Sunday and Monday with colder air – returning.  It is a brief break – a new storm is brewing for next week.

STORM #3 NEXT WEEK

No doubt southern branch of the jet stream is in the game, delivering several systems over the next 2.5 weeks, each pose a wintry threat.  Looming next week is this storm, depicted here by trusted Euro model Wednesday at 7 AM.  This is a favorable southern track that supports snow here, but how much and where still to be determined.  Several longer range computer models are in very good agreement of the storm track and location but differ in the finite details.  Moisture will be plentiful but where exactly will the rain snow transition line is up for serious debate.  Such complex storms require higher resolution models to resolve differences – that is coming in the days ahead. The take away is that there is a real storm potential next week. Stay tuned.

EURO Srf map Weds 2-5_2014

EURO weather map next Wednesday morning.

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