The worst may be behind us, but winter isn’t over just yet. Looking out over the next 15 days there will be a couple of chances for brief unseasonal cold blasts and possibly more snow. At this point it doesn’t look like any big snows (more than 3”) will be likely.
Let’s take a look at the rest of the week. Yesterday’s high hit 32°. The normal high for this time of the year is 47°. We should begin to get close to that as we finish out the week before we see another active pattern over the weekend. Model data has really struggled to keep pace with the changing of seasons. GFS Mos data puts our high today at 32 degrees. Nam Mos data puts our high at just 28 degrees. Yesterday’s high was 32 degrees and model data was a good 6 – 10 degrees off as they forecast highs in the mid to low 20s.
Also if I extrapolate the ‘perfect’ high temperature from 850mb temps we come up with highs today in the low 40s! This is using the wintertime formula and not the spring formula. Sure there will be clouds around through the day along with winds out of the northeast that will keep us from hitting the ‘ideal’ temperature, but everything is pointing to a much warmer day than forecast. Due to this I am going to bump today’s high to the upper 30s with 40s to our south. Any forecast in the 20s for today will come from someone not looking at the trends.
So the question now becomes how should we finish out the week? Temperatures are running warmer than model data for now, and we know that the trend will be for warmer weather each successive day through Friday. Once again using 850 temps we come up with Thursday highs in the mid to low 40s with 50s expected for Thursday and Friday. Friday could see some places hitting 60 degrees!
There will be a chance to see some rain turning over to possible snow over the weekend. Anything that falls wouldn’t be a lot. If everything goes wrong and we get a push of colder air without a change of track of the system we could see something in the 2 inch range. This is not the solution that model data is pointing at right now. At this point data is telling us to expect about an inch of snow with lower totals likely as much of what falls to start off will come down as rain. There is considerable uncertainty on if this round of wet weather will arrive on Saturday night or Sunday morning. It appears the slower the arrival the more snow you should expect to see. No matter the timing of the snow, weekend temperatures will be going down with highs in the low 30s both days. We may not hit 30 degrees Sunday afternoon. Enjoy your day!