Instability will be higher today and tomorrow behind a morning warm front that is lifting through the area. Model data shows storms developing this morning along a warm front and continuing into the afternoon and evening hours with scattered storms. While not officially included under the risk of organized severe weather today, frequent cloud to ground lightning along with hail and gusty winds will be possible with a couple of cells. Our tornado risk will go up the closer we get to Monday with shear (Spinning in the atmosphere) increasing as a potent mid-level low slides our way.
The rain isn’t the only forecast challenge for today. Temperatures should go up from the 86 we hit yesterday due to the warm surge behind the warm front. If clouds fail to break and we remain soggy throughout the day it would make it difficult to warm up to the upper 80s and 90s though. At this point I don’t think rain coverage and length will be enough to overcome the warmer core temperatures rolling in behind the warm front. All it should take is a brief break in clouds to see Indianapolis and others make a run at 90 degrees. For the city the next time we hit 90° will be the first time this year.
Looking at the next couple of days we will again have a chance for storms on Sunday with most storms occurring in the afternoon and evening hours. We are included on the organized severe risk map for day 3 (Monday – Tuesday Morning). As I said earlier Monday may be a day where we could potentially see a little bit of everything thrown our way. We won’t be able to rule out tornadoes with hail and wind all possible. While not one of the severe weather categories, lightning will also pose a risk for anyone stubborn enough not to head inside to ride out the passing storms.