Warm November to take a turn; cold and snow this weekend

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Warm fall - warmest November since 1994

A host of beautiful sunset pictures on this Wednesday evening. Thanks for sharing! –  And as always follow or share with me at my twitter account (@BrianWilkes59wx)

From Martinsville Wednesday evening

From Martinsville Wednesday evening

UserName:ferg1950@sbcglobal.net UserEmail:ferg1950@sbcglobal.net PhoneNumber:17653361247 Description:This was taken this evening as sun was setting. Beautiful! Lebanon, Indiana

Lebanon, Indiana

Photo credit Diana Bell in Fishers

Photo credit Diana Bell in Fishers

We entered the ‘dry slot’ – the wedge of dry air underneath the strong winds of the jet stream. The winds that feed the potent autumn storm that’s center is moving northeast into Canada. This is the transition zone from the rain, clouds and mild temperatures. Colder air and more clouds will sweep the state tonight.

'dry slot' of air roars in overhead and brings temporary clearing

‘dry slot’ of air roars in overhead and brings temporary clearing

So long mild air.  A two tier cool down that begins tonight and ends with the coldest air since March this weekend.

WARMEST NOVEMBER IN OVER 20 YEARS

November has been warm – the warmest in 21 years. The average temperature is 14 degrees warmer than last year and is the warmest since 1994. Fall 2015 overall is the 10th warmest on record to date. A pace that just cannot hold up – mother nature will try and correct this anomalously warm run.

Here comes the coldest air of the season and the coldest weekend since March. The second cold front will pass Saturday afternoon driving down a real winter brand of air.

Warm fall - warmest November since 1994

Warm Autumn – warmest November since 1994

COLD AND SNOW THIS WEEKEND

At this distance, a ‘clipper’ low pressure system (a fast moving storm) will ride the polar branch of the jet stream through the state. Moisture is limited and favors a band of accumulation snow north of its track. An early take from an ensemble run of super computers snowfall projections, shows a 80% chance of a 2″ snowfall north. (Image posted below) Stay tuned, this will be revised over the next 2 days.

ensemble forecast probability of 2" snowfall

ensemble forecast probability of 2″ snowfall

As the cold sweeps the state, snow showers will develop along with a sharp drop in temperatures. At this distance some of the snow could stick. The temperature drop will carry us to the teens by early morning Sunday.

European model forecast Saturday.  Turning colder with snow developing

European model forecast Saturday. Turning colder with snow developing