Winter comes roaring back with mid-week storm; rain, ice, snow, wind all possible

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WARM SPELL STILL ALIVE

Good Monday evening! Did you enjoy the earliest 70° day in 17 years over the weekend? Even with a cool off, we reached 7 straight days above normal Monday.

69 days, that was all it was between our last 70° day and our first of the season and the 3rd fewest ever on record!

CHECKING IN ON WINTER

This winter has been anything but normal. Weighted heavily on the above normal days in December, winter 2015-16 is the 15th warmest on record. Still lacking snowfall - 11" below normal and feeling like we've turned the corner, you knew deep down we hadn't and old man winter will confirm your suspicions later this week.

Warm winter since December 1st

Warm winter since December 1st

 

STORM BREWS FOR MID-WEEK

A powerful low pressure system will rise northeast from the Gulf of Mexico starting late Tuesday arriving Wednesday. Scooping up moisture off the Gulf of Mexico and currently taking a very favorable track into the Ohio Valley, we are monitoring the potential for the strongest winter storm so far this winter.

Storm tracks vary and so does the location and timing of a turn over to snow but all indication suggest a 6" plus snow is likely for a portion of central and north-central Indiana ending Thursday.

Northwest of low track heaviest snow fall will ocurr

Northwest of low track heaviest snow fall will occur


Off 4 computers, the system will bring well over a inch and a half of liquid with it. The onset of precipitation could come as a wintry mix (sleet, freezing rain and rain) then turn to a spread from northwest to southeast of snow to rain. As the low nears, colder air will be drawn in and down from aloft, changing to heavy wet snow by Wednesday evening.

It could be the largest snow of the season for a portion of central Indiana. From the NWS, an ensemble snow forecast places the probability of a 4" snow is across a large portion of the state.

 

62 total ensemble forecast of 4" probability snowfall

62 total ensemble forecast of 4" probability snowfall


I'm posting below the Euro model forecast weather maps on Wednesday and Thursday morning. The heaviest snow will generally fall 150 miles northwest of the low track. Track still vary among the suite of models We will revisit storm track tomorrow and update snowfall and location.

Euro model 7AM Wednesday surface weather map

Euro model 7AM Wednesday surface weather map

 

Still many uncertainties at this point and new information tonight and through Thursday will firm up snowfall and the switch over to soon.  Be sure to stay up to date here and on FOX59.