Calendar says March but late April/early May warmth underway; rain chances rise this week

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It sure feels like it!  Warm weather as arrived and Spring certainly looks like it has sprung considering the upcoming forecast.  OK, not so fast, we all know we have almost the entire month of March ahead of us.  But, we are starting a warm weather run.

Temperatures surged today climbing to 68°, that's 20 degrees above normal and the 8th time since January 1st to crack the 60 degree mark. Most since 2008.

Tuesday could reach the lower 70s for the second time this year.  The record Tuesday is safe, 80° set in 1974.

24 hour temperature change

24 hour temperature change


We have a extended spell of warmth coming perhaps reaching out to two weeks! Charts indicated above normal warmth well into the middle of next week and perhaps into St. Patrick's Day weekend.  Upper level winds will flow from the south at all levels while the cold branch of the jet stream retreats and stays north.

Average temperature high creeps up from 48° to 50° by this weekend. Currently we fell high temperatures will reach at or above 20 degree from normal (exception may be Friday) through next week.

How much above normal? Average high 48° to 50°

How much above normal? Average high 48° to 50°


NWS 8-14 day temp outlook centered on Mar 15 to the 21st

NWS 8-14 day temp outlook centered on Mar 15 to the 21st


Rain will be slow to increase here so we are expecting many rain-free hours tomorrow. The next 'chance' of rain is Wednesday and Thursday but a 'chance' is there each day starting Tuesday through next Monday. Area coverage of the rain will be at its highest Wednesday and Thursday.

BW Rain Chances

Rainfall total are not extraordinary but healthy with the axis of heaviest rain projected west. 10 day totals range from 2" to 4" inches of rain. It is important to note this is over a 10 day span and will not be evenly distributed, Under t-storms amounts could be higher.

ADI 12z gfs 12km Precip Accum WIDE

NAM computer model 7 day rainfall foreast