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A terrific start start he weekend! Sunshine bathed central Indiana Friday in the wake of showers and storms late last night. A wind-shifting cold front passes early this morning bringing drier conditions. Temperatures are cooler but it is seasonal chill to start the weekend. Check out the gorgeous colors from Brown county Friday afternoon.
Warmer temperatures will accompany clouds and rain chances but the threat is minimal through early Saturday afternoon. Dry time will be plentiful Saturday but a few showers will develop as the warm front nears throughout afternoon and evening hours. Below is the coverage of rainfall through Saturday night. While there are few showers possible from noon on the higher likelihood of rain will develop into the afternoon and increase overnight.
The surge in warmth will peak Sunday as temperarues rise to near 70-degrees in the afternoon but the the threat of showers and thunderstorms will be greater Sunday.
SEVERE STORM THREAT SUNDAY BEING MONITORED
The Storm Prediction Center has out-looked a large area of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio for potential severe thunderstorms. A higher 'enhanced risk' has been forecast for central- eastern Illinois and western Indiana.
The warm front will be the focus for thunderstorms as early as Sunday morning. A few strong storms can't be rules out early Sunday and as the air becomes more unstable Sunday afternoon and evening several thunderstorms or lines of storms could spread across the area. The environment will be favorable for all severe modes - including tornadoes as winds twist with height, a warm front and cold front are present and powerful jet stream approaches by evening.
I'm posting below the latest SPC's SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast) model jet stream forecast - probability of severe thunderstorm and the forecast significant tornado ingredients below. A large portion of central-eastern Indiana and western Indiana are indicated for the highest probability for a tornado. It is worth noting that there is also a large southwest to northeast 30% area indicated. There may be a few (several?) rounds of storms and near the warm front - activity could be greatest at the onset, then transition to near or ahead of the cold front later Sunday.
It is possible a watch box or two may be required on Sunday. Stay alert and more information will be available Saturday. Be sure to check in with The Weather Authority throughout the weekend for updates.