Full blown January thaw then decided turn to frigid air, potential for weekend snow


Thaw continues and will persist through the night. No wide-spread refreeze expected.

This is the mildest afternoon in over two weeks and tonight we will remain above freezing. After sunset, steady temperatures are expected along with more fog. It will thicken through the night as we continue to melt off snow and add more moist air. Areas of dense fog are very possible by early Wednesday morning.

A few showers are expected to develop before sunrise.

The thaw will continue through Thursday reaching well into the 50s and not shy from 60-degrees in many locations Thursday. It won’t last but it will feel nice after the brutally cold start to the year.


Longer range, a new cold surge is coming but the transition could be problematic.

For the second straight day, a trusted longer range computer model hints at significant snow and wind across Indiana to open the weekend. It is still several days away and warrants close watching so be sure to check back in.

These setups are drastic and volatile weather patterns lead to very tricky extended forecasts. When merging or marrying the polar branch of the jet stream and the moist tropical branch, we often spin up more potent storms.

Still, there’s MUCH to be resolved IF this phasing will indeed occur. We will know much more as the week wears on. Definitely plan on some snow and brace for the next cold blast. Temperatures are expected to plunge again starting this weekend. Low temperatures will return below zero starting as early as Monday morning!

I’m posting the long range EURO model vs. the US GFS model below. Where and when will a stripe of heavy snow develop? Stay tuned!