THE COLD CONTINUES
The month of November is approaching the midway point and we are working on our 7th consecutive day below normal. This is an unusually chilly afternoon, a full 25-degrees below normal. The second early season arctic front has swept the Hoosier State in the past five days. Clearing tonight will send lows again into the teens Wednesday morning.
To date, November 2018 is the coldest in 20 years and ranks 18th coldest out of 147 years!
WINTRY MIX FOR THURSDAY
High pressure holds Wednesday but the cold pattern will yield more wintry weather. Conditions are becoming more favorable for a wintry cocktail of freezing rain, sleet and snow early Thursday morning.
A closed, upper-level low will send clouds and eventually precipitation north into the state before the Thursday morning commute. Based on temperature projections, Thursday morning could get slick. Low level temperatures will remain below freezing as moisture overruns from southern Indiana. The up-welling of warmer and moist air will interact with the shallow cold layers to create potential icing before sunrise Thursday. We will monitor conditions.
As the low nears, a change to rain is likely as the warmer air mixes down to the surface and critical temperatures climb above freezing. The messy system will then move east drawing back colder air and changing precipitation back to snow before ending. Accumulation of snow is possible but the complex system is still being monitored. At this time, the probability of 1" of snow accumulation and .10" of ice accumulation are posted below.
Our RPM model as of Tuesday afternoon shows potential icing in south-central Indiana early Thursday morning then after a switch to snow, accumulation of 1" to 2". There will still be much to resolve and this is an early take. Be sure to check back for further updates tonight and Wednesday.